After Arafat

[ringmasterrob]

Yasser Arafat, the Palestinain leader and a figurhead in Middle Eastern peace for decades is lying critically ill in a French Hospital, back in Palestine then there is a lot of confusion over who would succeed the man should this health scare prove fatal. While there is a chance he will pull through, this will keep it on the minds of all of us that Arafat is now getting old and won't last forever. So, who is likely to succeed him? How well would they do and what would their policies & attitudes be? Could Arafat's death spell an ultimate end for hopes of peace in the Middle East? Few things to think about there I hope.

[HStorm]

I have a suspicion that Arafat already has died, and that they're trying to keep it quiet until there can be an orderly transition of power.

The problem is, it's not clear who can succeed him. The one occasion that the PLO faced this issue in the past, when Arafat tried to resign, the rest of the leadership simply insisted he come back as the idea of going on without him was unthinkable to them. His death is the only thing that can force them to face that problem head-on, but is also likely to induce a crisis until they wake up to the fact that he won't be there much longer (assuming he's still alive at all).

Without a leader of Araft's presence, the PLO will have no diplomatic strength, which could leave them very weak indeed in their struggle for the support of worldwide opinion.

[Naselus]

With Arafat gone, the peace process will fall by the wayside altogether. Only more aggressive leaders would be able to take over and retain control of the PLO rank-and-file, especially since the Israelis insist on assassinating anyone in the upper echelons. As the PLO has lost quite a bit of it's leadership on this way already, it's becoming a little harder to control and co-ordinate, and there's many martyrs for their cause who will have to be avenged. Meanwhile, a maniac like Sharon will no doubt see this as a boundless opportunity. We can expect to see a quick rise in violence, and possible a splintering of the PLO into various small groups, with their own political objectives.

[Thanatos]

Much will depend upon Israel's reaction to Arafat's death. I think it likely that Sharon will respond with hostility (they've already said they won't let him be buried in Jerusalem) in order to prolong still further the intifada he depends on, in which case Arafat's successors, official or otherwise, can only be worse.

[Naselus]

Given that many Palestinians believe Israel poisoned Arafat, which I must confess I suspected myself, I'm pretty sure that there's going to be a massive increase in violence. I'm betting on at least one militant splinter group leaving the PLO within a couple of days of Arafat's eventual death, and Israel using this as an excuse for military escalation. There's no chance of Israel not taking advantage of the situation as long as Sharon is in power, he's an oppotunistic little facist, and I wouldn't be suprised if he started a program of ethnic cleansing in the next decade or so.

[HStorm]

Today's the crunch day for the Palestinians, as they head to the polls to elect a new leader to succeed Yasser Arafat. There are two main candidates - Fatah Party candidate, and Arafat's former Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas and Pro-Democratic Party leader Mustafa Barghouti. Both are moderates who have criticised their own people for the Intifada uprising provoked by Ariel Sharon four years ago.

As voting opens, opinion polls suggest that Abbas has a clear lead. Over a million Palestinians are eligible to vote in the election, but many have to travel through hostile Israeli territory in order to reach polling stations. The Israelis insist that they have lifted enough roadblocks to allow fair access.

Results should be known tomorrow.

[Naselus]

HStorm said:

The Israelis insist that they have lifted enough roadblocks to allow fair access.

The Pope has also declared himself to be a devout Muslim, and a number of bears have been seen using public lavatories. Oh, and the First Airborne Porcine Unit has been engaging in bombing runs over Iraq.

[HStorm]

the First Airborne Porcine Unit has been engaging in bombing runs over Iraq

Grrrr, I knew it was them. Pigs! *Insert laugh here*

[ringmasterrob]

Mahmoud Abbas has won the election as the Palestinian leader and both Bush and Sharon have said they would speak to him and accept him as a leader. Even if they're just saying that for the sake of politics it's better than they were with Arafat don't you think?

[HStorm]

Last night, a Palestinian suicide bomber caused a huge explosion at a nightclub in Tel Aviv. At least four people were killed and dozens were injured. After the informal ceasefire of the last few weeks since Mahmoud Abbas was elected the new leader, this is a blow to the peace process, although probably an inevitable one.

On a positive note, though, different Palestinian terror groups have insisted they did not commit the atrocity and have condemned it, so it could just have been a one-off attack.

[HStorm]

Another critical turning point has been reached in the Israel/Palestine conflict. Fatah, after decades as the ruling party of the Palestinians, has been trounced in election; and the new ruling party is none other than hardline terror-supporters, Hamas. The rejection of Fatah has been put down in large part to anti-corruption feelings among Palestinians, who feel that Fatah ministers have been cashing in personally on their mandate for years.

With the fall of Ariel Sharon through illness, this development is sure to cause enormous re-polarisation in between Israel and Palestine. Hamas officials are not even allowed to set foot in Israeli territory, and refuse to recognise Israel exists.