Rumours at home

[HStorm]

An interesting idea is circulating around Westminster apparently, regarding Tony Blair's surprise declaration that he plans to stay as Prime Minister for the full third term if Labour win the next election. The suggestion is that Blair is deliberately slapping Gordon Brown in the face, not just to delay handing over the reins to him, but in fact to keep him from ever taking over as PM. After all, Brown will be 58 by 2009 (when a putative fourth term would probably begin), and by then he may be past his sell-by date. Could it be that the sudden return of one of Blair's old favourites, Alan Milburn, to the Cabinet is at the heart of this? Could it be that Blair is grooming Milburn to be his successor, and as a final stab in the back of his old friend Brown?

[Naselus]

I don't think it was entirely deliberate. I still believe that Blair's gone power mad and can no longer accept the idea of anyone but himself as leader, and doesn't care who's toes he crushes in order to do so, and to hell with the consequences. Milburn's return is probably an attempt to consolidate his own position and finish off any attempt of a Majoresque coup by Brown. If Blair can cling on until 2009 he'll probably insist he can handle another four years, and then promptly drop dead, leaving the Labour party in chaos.

The main question in my mind is whether or not Alan will be foolish enough to trust the duplicitous bastard and will shore up his crumbling premiership, or if he's wily enough to ally with Brown and bring the sly old dog down through a hostile attack, leaving Brown in charge with Milburn as heir apparent. And if Brown will prove as dirty a trickster as Blair.

[HStorm]

I don't think that scenario's very likely either, as Brown and Milburn don't really get along for ideological reasons; Brown's a left-of-centre socialist whereas Milburn's an arch-Blairite.

[Naselus]

I know, but it can't be long before even the staunchest of Blair's supporters realise that he must be stopped, no matter the cost. Probably just after he declares himself Fuhrer of Britain, but before he invades Poland and starts ranting about leibensraum.

[HStorm]

Rumours are now circulating that a Labour revolt could be imminent after Blair announced he wants a full third term in office. The Unions are apparently set to announce that they will throw their full support, lock-stock-and-barrel, behind Gordon Brown, and many backbenchers, including former Blairite Frank Dobson, are apparently making moves against Blair on the quiet.

Such a rebellion may be postponed because of the imminence of the next General Election, as such a huge split in the Labour Party could blow the result of the Election wide open again. But if Blair doesn't step down within two years after a victory, the Labour Party could become split irrevocably.